Jonathan Moyer is Research Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Moyer aids the strategic planning efforts of various countries, international organizations, and corporations and researches the impact of developmental imbalances on state failure and fragility.
Session: Forecasting Failure: Exploring the Historical Accuracy of Predictive Models of Political Instability
Quantitative models of political instability failed to predict the Arab Uprising that occurred beginning in 2010. This presentation explores the historical accuracy of predictive models of political instability, tests models with new specifications, and unpacks how the drivers of political instability change across time. This research suggests that there is significant historical variation in the importance and strength of drivers of political instability across time and that states can be fragile and experience political instability for different reasons.
Politics & Service | Friday, Nov 11, 2016